The results of the referendum for or against the independence of New Caledonia are now known. The high turnout (85.7%) is up 4.62% compared to the 2018 referendum on the same subject.
Although the yes vote wins with 53.3% against 46.7% for the supporters of independence both are neck and neck with a clear increase in the vote (+ 3.4%) in favor of independence. Clearly the dynamic is on the side of the forces claiming the independence of this French colony. Its formation dates back to 1853 and its settlement colonization began in 1864, as a penal colony. Over the years, the lands of indigenous peoples managed under a right of use were taken over by settlers. This resulted in a massive expropriation of the Kanak population.
The struggles for independence and their repression have never ceased. It took the events of the 1980s, which saw the tensions between opponents and supporters of independence come to a head, for things to start moving. These clashes, which soon became an almost generalized insurgency from 1984 to 1988, culminated in the hostage-taking of Ouvea in 1988. The French colonial forces reacted with violence and assassinated the Kanak independence leader Jean Marie Tjibaou. The agreements of Paris in 1988 and then of Noumea in 1998 between the French colonial power and the separatists seal the possibility for the indigenous and the colonial populations to vote by referendum (the next one could take place in 2022). For France, a colonizing power, New Caledonia is a strategic territory both by its position in the South Pacific Ocean which is presently at the center of imperialist tensions in the Asia-Pacific zone, but also for the exclusive maritime space allocated to France; and also it is rich in Nickel, a highly strategic metal in the composition of special steels, in particular necessary for the armaments industry. Needless to say that French imperialism is ensuring the maintenance of its preeminence in the region. In other words, whether or not there is a referendum, the pressures will be fierce so that the scenario of total independence does not materialize. Already the argument aiming to explain that it will always be fifty-fifty tends to support the idea that a compromise solution will have to be found, implicitly favorable to colonial domination.