N°13-02/05/2021 International: Ukraine, the war risk increases, Peru, Ecuador
The militarization around the Black Sea, Ukraine and the Baltic region is worrying. NATO-linked forces conduct large force deployments in eastern Ukraine and NATO navies carry out joint exercises in the Black Sea region. Tensions over the Crimean Peninsula are also increasing. The pipeline that will connect Russia to Germany is also a source of tension; two Republican senators issued a call urging the new president to stop "dragging his feet" and take action against the pipeline. Though Trump has stepped down, the Biden presidency marks no change in U.S. foreign policy.
While the Montreux Convention of 1936 guarantees the free passage of the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles Straits to civilian ships it restricts the passage of warships; the imperialist naval forces therefore have limited access to this sea. Turkey, US imperialist outpost in the region, is paving the way for Western imperialist marine forces to bypass the Bosphorus and begins construction this year of the Istanbul Canal, which will run parallel to the Bosphorus and connect the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara… The Turkish government thus expresses a greater commitment to NATO, the United States and the EU. All this is adding to the danger of conflict and of imperialist aggression against peoples with the complicity of Macron. Faced with this escalation in the organization and the aggressive presence of NATO, it is highly urgent to develop the struggles for France’s withdrawal from NATO, for the dissolution of this imperialist organization and of all imperialist organizations.
More than ever the struggle for peace, for the rejection of imperialist wars is on the agenda.
Peru:
The ballot took place as the country sees record high levels of contamination and deaths from Covid-19.
The pandemic has already claimed more than 54,000 lives for 33 million inhabitants, one of the highest death rates in the world. In addition, there is an economic crisis, which mainly hits the poorest (70% of the population lives on informal jobs). Teacher Pedro Castillo, 51, representative of the radical left and little known to voters, was credited with barely 3% to 4% of voting intentions a few weeks ago; he made 19% of the votes in the first round. The candidate of the populist right, Keiko Fujimori, painfully won 13% of the vote. They will face each other for the second round of the presidential election. In Peru, voting is compulsory on pain of a fine. So, to mark their rejection of the entire political class, plagued by corruption, more than 17% of voters slipped a blank or invalid ballot into the ballot box. "The fight and the struggle have only just begun," said Pedro Castillo, the candidate of the small left-radical party Peru Libre. During the campaign he promised radical changes "not patches or reforms". He pleads for more state, the nationalization of mines and oil and for a new Constitution to replace that of 1993 which gives primacy to the private sector.
Ecuador:
Banker Guillermo Lasso wins the presidential elections in Ecuador with more than 52% of the vote against 47% for Andrés Arauz, the political heir of Rafael Correa. The correism candidate, had won the first round by 13 points ahead of the other candidates but Guillermo Lasso was able to count on the support of employers and of the USA. He obtained the support of the candidate of the “Democratic Left” as well as that of the candidate Pérez, emergence of an Ecuadorian “new left”; the latter had called for a null vote to not support Arauz. After years of government, Correism has not kept its promises of the "Citizens’ Revolution"; it has not transformed the structural bases of dependence of the country; it has maintained the dollar imposed by former President Jamil Mahuad for the rescue of large banks. The election was also marked by the disaster of Lenin Moreno (1) who led a repressive government, marked by pacts with the IMF with which he has just negotiated a recent agreement which adds to the disastrous management of the pandemic.
The majority of the assembly belongs to the Corréista bloc without however its own majority; Lasso’s victory will involve political re-compositions in Parliament. The social explosion of October 2019 left its mark on Ecuadorians, the people are not willing to suffer further attacks. Big monopoly capital strikes hard to increase the exploitation of the workers and of the poorest strata, increase its profits and restrict public freedoms. Faced with this offensive by capital, workers and peoples are fighting.
(1) Rafael Correa was re-elected president on February 17, 2013 with 57.17% of the votes. His years of presidency are in particular directed towards the fight against poverty and inequalities. Outgoing Vice-President Lenín Moreno takes over as President on May 24, 2017. He develops a more liberal and less social policy by adopting a series of measures such as a 20% reduction in the wages of contract workers in the public sector, the abolition of 15 of the 30 days of paid annual leave for civil servants and the obligation to work one day a month without pay. Fuel prices are increased by nearly 125%, while taxes on the outflow of capital from the territory are reduced. In response to the strikes and demonstrations that followed, the authorities decided to establish a state of emergency and a curfew for a period of at least 30 days.